Published Oct 12, 2023
Behind Enemy Lines: Illinois
Scott Greene  •  TerrapinSportsReport
Publisher

The Terps (5-1) got out to an early 10-0 lead at Ohio State, but the Buckeyes proved to be too much, scoring the final 27 points of the game to knock Maryland from the ranks of the unbeaten by a final score of 37-17.

Maryland now heads into Saturday's homecoming game versus Illinois (2-4) looking to get back into the win column before a much needed bye week.

TSR went in depth with OrangeAndBlueNews.com publisher Doug Bucshon to get some perspective on the Illini and his thoughts on Saturday's matchup between Maryland and Illinois.

RELATED: Watch Maryland player preview Illinois | Big Ten football mid-season poll

What has happened to the Illini so far this season? It seems they have taken a major step back after winning eight games a season ago and having entered the season with some lofty expectations.

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How much time do you have? Not much has gone to plan for the Ilini. They haven’t been competitive in three Big Ten losses, and they didn’t exactly inspire confidence in the too-close-for-comfort wins over Toledo and FAU.

Much of the trouble starts up front on offense. The stats suggest the Illinois offensive line is one of the worst among all Power 5 teams. Head coach Bret Bielema has played musical chairs with the group to try to find the right combination, but nothing has jelled. Injuries have compounded the problem. Illinois can’t run the ball on early downs, and they allow the most sacks in the Big Ten, making third and long an adventure.

The defense was expected to take a step backwards after losing four starters in the secondary, including top 5 draft pick Devon Witherspoon. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters bolted for the head coaching job at Purdue. There was bound to be growing pains. What they didn’t expect was to rank last in the Big Ten in total defense.

The Illini can’t stop the run, which takes a lot of pressure off of opposing quarterbacks. They don’t give up a lot of explosive plays for TD’s on the ground, but opponents have 31 rushing plays of 10+ yards and convert nearly 50 percent of their third down tries. The defensive front is talented, but the second-tier defenders and secondary have struggled. They have played better of late, though, so maybe they turned a corner.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer has put up some big passing numbers this season, but interceptions and sacks seem to have really hurt the Illini. What has been the cause of those struggles?

Altmyer has arm talent and is a good athlete, but youth and inexperience have held him back at times. He tried to make some deep throws into coverage against Penn State, and the Nittany Lions picked him off four times. His decision-making is getting better, but he’s still a young quarterback on a team with limited overall talent.

The offensive line hasn’t given Altmyer much of a chance. The Illini allow a ton of sacks and QB hurries. Altmyer has been under pressure this season on nearly 40 percent of his drop backs, and he's been shaky when he has to make plays under duress. He's completing just 32 percent of this throws when under pressure and has a 40.0 PFF passing grade.

There have been positive signs. One thing to watch on Saturday is Altmyer making plays with his feet when he’s flushed from the pocket. He’s the second leading rusher on the team and has scored 3 rushing touchdowns.

Who are some other playmakers on offense that Maryland fans should know about?

Shifty slot receiver Isaiah Williams leads the Big Ten in receptions (38) and receiving yards (503) heading into Saturday’s contest. Only Ohio State All-American Marvin Harrison Jr. averaging more receiving yards per game. The Illini like to get the ball out to Williams quickly and let him make plays in space.

Wide receiver Pat Bryan is a deep threat on the outside. He doesn’t have elite top-end speed, but he can use his length to bring down 50/50 balls. Altmyer will take 2-3 shots to him deep. Tight end Tip Reiman will also be targeted.

The Illini went into the season expecting running backs Reggie Love and Josh McCray to carry the load. Injuries to both have now thrown freshmen into the spotlight. Love is likely out for Saturday, and McCray was lost for the season. True freshman Kaden Feagin (6-3, 240 pounds) start. He’s a power back with good speed who can also catch the ball out of the backfield. Redshirt freshman Aidan Laughery hasn’t yet been used much except as a return man on special teams, but he will get carries on Saturday. He’s more an all-purpose speed back.

What type of scheme do the Illini run on defense? Who are some names to watch on that side of the ball?

It’s a basic 3-4 defense with a 0-tech nose tackle and two 5-tech defense ends along the front. Illinois will line up in the nickel at least 50 percent of the time, and they vary the coverages in the back end. They haven’t been as aggressive with the blitz packages this year after some significant losses to graduation and the NFL Draft.

Anyone who scouts Illinois first has to figure out how to handle All-American defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton. Newton leads all interior defensive linemen nationally in pressures (24) heading into week 7. Opposing teams have been throwing double teams at Newton, and that’s the best way to slow him down. Still, an unintended consequence of doubling Newton is it frees up standout DL Keith Randolph to makes plays. Like Newton, he’s a future NFL draft pick.

Another key cog in the defense is DB Xavier Scott. He plays the hybrid STAR/nickel position, a key playmaking spot in the Illini’s defense, and he spends a lot of time in the box. Scott is the second leading tackler behind free safety Miles Scott and the highest ranked Illini defender against the run according to PFF.

Also Keep an eye on the two inside linebackers Kenenna Odeluga and Dylan Rosiek, both of whom made big strides last week in the loss to Nebraska. Rosiek had 17 tackles in that game. Odeluga has the speed and quickness to chase down Taulia Tagovailoa.

What does Illinois need to do Saturday to come away with an upset win over the Terps?

The obvious answer is ‘win the turnover battle’. It’s a key stat in most upsets. That seems unlikely, though, with the Terps ranked in the top 10 in the nation in turnover margin and Illinois not getting a lot of take-aways this season. If the Ilini can turn Togovailoa over they have a shot, but that’s a pretty big “if”.

The Illini would probably like to ugly the game up; grind it out, move the chains, and kill some clock. If it becomes a track meet, the score could get out of hand in a hurry. Maryland is explosive and will throw deep. Illinois has to limit the big plays to have any chance to come home with a W.

Prediction? Final Score?

This is a difficult road test for Illinois. They will have issues with the Terps’ speed and quickness, and the Illini defense hasn’t shown that they contain a mobile quarterback. Illinois has been grounded offensively, and even with some modest improvement I don’t see them finding the end zone enough to keep the game close. The Terps cruise and cover the 13.5 spread.

Maryland 31 Illinois 14

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